Credit Crisis Solutions

When is the Economy Recovering?

Also: Is this really such a good time to buy stocks for the long run?

The latest news on job losses, house prices and the stock market has a lot of readers asking some very hard questions. Like when is the economy going to recover? And when will the stock market start going back up? We have no idea. But here are some things to keep an eye on as we keep slogging through the roughest economy in at least a generation.

While we are in the midst of a very slow economy, what do past recessions tell us about the recovery? When it does rebound, does it take off quickly? Come back slowly? Does the stock market react first? Or real estate? Do companies start to hire again soon? Do banks start to lend money again fairly quickly? What will be signs to economy is turning around?
— Dave, Youngstown, Ohio

If you want to pick one set of economic statistics to watch, keep an eye on the job numbers — both the monthly employment report and the weekly numbers showing how many people sign up for unemployment insurance for the first time. At the moment, these are the most worrisome because they seem to be accelerating downward. The next monthly reading comes this Friday. Some economists are talking about job losses of as many as 750,000 in February,  up from 598,000 in January. Last week, 667,000 signed up for unemployment benefits, the most in one week in a quarter century, bringing the total to about 6.5 million.

y John W. Schoen